← Gaming Giant PTM Virginia Regional
Water AlliesTier 2
at Gaming Giant PTM Virginia Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.7% | -10.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.7% | +25.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 65.2% | +14.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.6% | +8.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tweedledee, Contrarian Poet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sablemere, Warden's Grip | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vigil Rempart | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |